This briefing explores the potential impact of Trump 2.0 on three foreign policy areas: Trump & Modi, AI, DOGE & China, and Latin America. This piece was written by Saurav Parmar and edited by Tanvi Sureka.
The unprecedented re-election of President Trump on November 4th is likely to have profound consequences for not only the USA, but the rest of the world. Politically, economically, and militarily, the USA remains one of the world’s most powerful nations. Yet, it appears that the newly elected Trump administration is set to take a radically alternative approach to foreign policy, driven by an America First ideology which looks inwards before looking outwards.
Much attention has been given to various foreign policy issues that will be majorly impacted by Trump’s re-election in the short, medium and long term. This includes his stated desire to end the Ukraine/Russia war ‘in 24 hours’ and similarly his desire to see the Israel/Gaza conflict concluded before he even enters office. In addition, relations with China have also received much coverage, as the USA looks set to re-engage in a tariff war with their Chinese counterparts, which in Trump’s view, will protect domestic jobs and industries, particularly in the manufacturing sector.
But what about some other areas of Trump’s foreign policy? What will Trump’s relations with India look like in the next four years? What approach will he take towards the advancement and governance of Artificial Intelligence? And how does he plan to interact with his Latin American counterparts? This article will explore such questions and provide insight into the lesser-reported areas of Trump’s foreign policy objectives.
Trump and Modi – A Populist Bromance
Relations between the USA and India have gone from strength to strength in the past thirty years. Perhaps nothing epitomised this more than the ‘Howdy Modi’ and ‘Namaste Trump’ rallies, held in Dallas and Ahmedabad respectively, during the last Trump presidency. These rallies saw a combined 150,000 attend to hear President Trump and Prime Minister Modi speak in front of their vociferous supporters, about their shared values and friendship. As such, it was little surprise that PM Modi was one of the first leaders to send congratulations to the newly elected President, and the general expectation is that the two leaders’ fruitful bromance is likely to continue under Trump 2.0.
Indeed, many commonalities exist between the two leaders and their outlook on the world. Both leaders revel in their populist image, possess a disdain towards liberal media narratives and radical Islam, and take pride in their economic nationalist agendas. Trump’s cabinet picks of Mike Waltz (National Security Adviser) and Marco Rubio (Secretary of State) also point towards an intention to drive further collaboration between the two nations, with the former having served as head of the India Caucus, and the latter having pushed for increased US-India defence cooperation.
Most intriguingly however is their shared hawkish view on China. Trump’s well-documented intentions to restart tariff wars with China will lead to a need for the USA to find allies who can provide mutual advantages from both a political and economic perspective. India currently possesses the fastest growing economy in the world, has the world’s largest population, and an increasingly educated workforce with particular strengths in IT and other tertiary services. As such, could India represent an alternative trading partner, willing to trade with the USA on more favourable terms? Despite these strengths, India’s desire to become a manufacturing powerhouse remains a faraway goal, with this aspect of their economy stagnating at 17% of GDP. With China’s equivalent level sitting at 38%, India’s ability to fill any void left by a US-China trade war from a supply chain perspective, is questionable.
Furthermore, despite this shared concern over increasing Chinese strength, there is no suggestion that this will automatically translate to cooperation between the USA and India. From the USA’s perspective, the America First agenda is a primary objective. So, any push from India to improve its manufacturing capabilities may well be viewed with suspicion by Trump’s administration (indeed, Trump himself has called Modi out on this in the past).
Meanwhile, India’s foreign policy is fundamentally driven by the mantra of Vishwamitra (“Friend of the World”), which promotes the idea of engaging with “all major poles of influence in the international system” and not taking sides in great power conflicts. This is exemplified by India’s continued political and economic engagement with Russia and Iran, despite their pariah status in the West. Therefore, whilst we should certainly expect Trump and Modi to continue positive engagement in a number of areas, some realism must be equally applied.
Artificial Intelligence, DOGE and the China Link
In a general sense, there is a broad expectation that the USA will pull away from multilateral approaches to solving global challenges. Therefore, how the USA will engage with the contemporary challenge of Artificial Intelligence (AI) governance will be one to watch closely during the second Trump presidency, given its rapid proliferation and advancement in the past four years, and growing concerns over its potency to become an existential threat to humanity.
Trump’s own position on AI is difficult to identify. It was a policy area that he directly engaged with towards the end of his first term, when signing an Executive Order which highlighted the importance of American leadership on AI from an economic and national security perspective. His close association with Elon Musk, who is set to lead the new ‘Department of Government Efficiency’ (also known as ‘DOGE’), may also point towards an emphasis on safety, given Musk’s past record on highlighting this issue.
However, part of Musk’s remit as head of the DOGE is to look for ways to cut bureaucracy wherever possible, which would increase efficiency and encourage innovation. Therefore, there is a possibility that AI governance will be a target of this policy. Furthermore, given Trump has promised to repeal President Biden’s Executive Order on AI, there is no guarantee that strong AI governance will be maintained, both domestically and internationally.
Nevertheless, one area which will likely receive Trump’s attention is China’s link to AI. As the Brookings Institute note, China’s growing military and intelligence AI activities, which some American companies are reportedly involved in, clash with Trump’s general outlook on China. As such, measures such as export restrictions on AI semiconductors with China, as well as broader cooperation with other states in countering Chinese AI activities, may receive backing from the Trump administration.
Latin America - ¿Amigos o enemigos?
Trump’s election will also have profound consequences for Latin America. During his first term, Trump was responsible for placing travel and trade restrictions on Cuba, imposing sanctions and threatening war on Venezuela, and repeatedly threatening tariffs on Mexico, due to what he interpreted as poor efforts to improve their border security. Given his repeated rhetoric on repatriating illegal migrants and his desire to court the Latino vote, there is no doubt that the region will once again be receiving his attention.
Trump’s decision to select Marco Rubio as his Secretary of State further points to this fact. Rubio, of Cuban descent, is on record for strongly opposing left-wing politics, and thus it is expected that this will translate to his foreign policy outlook. This will likely involve more hostile relations with more left-wing governments in South America. Meanwhile, states with more aligned views, such as Javier Milei’s Argentina, will likely be viewed more favourably.
In addition, a recent development in the region is the increase in overtures by the likes of Russia, China and Iran towards friendly Latin American counterparts. This is seen to be the result of a lack of attention paid to the region by the USA in the Cold War era. From a Trump 2.0 perspective, it can therefore be expected that any states that continue to open themselves up to such approaches will face retaliation from the USA.
The ironic aspect of any retaliation from the USA is that the tools available to them, namely sanctions and increased tariffs, are arguably the biggest cause of both increased cooperation with the USA’s adversaries, as well as the illegal migration crisis which Trump so greatly wishes to end. Thus, whether such a fact is recognised by the Trump administration, and a more collaborative, “root cause” approach to security economic development takes place, remains to be seen. The Trump administration’s cabinet selections and assertive rhetoric, suggest such an approach is unlikely.
Another Era of Unpredictability
There is no doubt that whatever the foreign policy issue, Trump 2.0 will certainly be looking to leave its footprint on several global challenges. From the areas highlighted at the top of the article to the issues explored in depth throughout this piece, the common thread that can be seen is that Trump’s foreign policy decisions will fundamentally be driven by what he feels is best for America, ahead of anyone and everything else. What is certain, is that we should expect the unexpected, and be ready for another four years of unpredictability both inside the USA, and beyond.
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